By Ari Meier
In the Georgia primary election held on May 21, three candidates competed to become DeKalb County’s next CEO: Lorraine Cochran-Johnson, Larry Johnson, and Steve Bradshaw. Despite none of the candidates securing a majority with 50 percent plus one of the vote, the results were as follows:
- Lorraine Cochran-Johnson received 36,469 votes, accounting for 46.3 percent of the total.
- Larry Johnson garnered 27,075 votes, representing 34.4 percent of the vote.
- Steve Bradshaw obtained 15,264 votes, equivalent to 19.4 percent.
The top two vote-getters—Lorraine Cochran-Johnson and Larry Johnson—will face off in a runoff election on June 18th.
There are a few interesting takeaways.
First the map:
- Lorraine Cochran-Johnson received widespread support across much of the county.
- Larry Johnson found favor in the southwestern portion of the county.
- Steve Bradshaw led in a few scattered central DeKalb precincts.
Remember that leading a precinct simply means having more votes than other candidates, regardless of the margin. For instance, even a lead of 1 vote qualifies.
In the precincts where Larry Johnson led, there was a 1,321-vote difference between him and Lorraine Cochran-Johnson. This translates to a lead of approximately 11 percent in a section of the county where he was the Commissioner in District Three for 20-plus years.
County-wide, excluding Steve Bradshaw’s votes, Mrs. Cochran-Johnson led Larry Johnson by nearly 15 percent.
In the chart below, the red means that Larry Johnson had the lowest vote lead over Lorraine Cochran-Johnson, up to green, where he had the largest lead. Analyzing the strength of Larry Johnson’s votes, the chart indicates that only six out of 30 precincts showed a green shade (ranging from dark to bright) over Lorraine Cochran-Johnson.
The majority of precincts leaned toward red, suggesting that in areas where Larry Johnson was popular, Lorraine Cochran-Johnson still put up a relatively strong performance.
Let’s dive into some statistical fun without delving too deep into the math. If the same number of voters turn out on June 18 to cast their votes for either Larry Johnson or Lorraine Cochran-Johnson, here’s my prediction:
- Lorraine Cochran-Johnson would secure 45,226 votes, which corresponds to approximately 57.39 percent of the total vote.
However, keep in mind that statistics is all about attempting to answer the unknown, and several variables could impact the accuracy of this prediction. Some factors to consider include:
- Candidate Spending: How much each candidate invests in their campaign.
- Voter Turnout: The actual number of voters who show up on election day.
- Steve Bradshaw’s Voters: How many of Steve Bradshaw’s supporters choose either candidate or abstain from voting.
Remember, exercising your right to vote is crucial! So, regardless of predictions, let your voice be heard.